web-archive-org-quyhdp.txt (24819B)
1 #[1]by @robfitz » Feed [2]by @robfitz » Comments Feed [3]by @robfitz » 2 The coffeeshop fallacy Comments Feed [4]Getting and giving good startup 3 advice [5]Let’s admit that customer development is awkward 4 5 IFRAME: 6 [6]https://archive.org/includes/donate.php?as_page=1&platform=wb&refere 7 r=https%3A//web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http%3A//thestartuptoolk 8 it.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ 9 10 [7]Wayback Machine 11 http://thestartuptoo Go 12 [8]232 captures 13 17 Nov 2011 - 12 Nov 2020 14 [9]Feb MAR [10]May 15 [11]Previous capture 04 [12]Next capture 16 [13]2015 2016 [14]2017 17 success 18 fail 19 [15]About this capture 20 COLLECTED BY 21 Organization: [16]Internet Archive 22 The Internet Archive discovers and captures web pages through many 23 different web crawls. At any given time several distinct crawls are 24 running, some for months, and some every day or longer. View the web 25 archive through the [17]Wayback Machine. 26 Collection: [18]Hackernews crawl number 0 27 Hacker News Crawl of their links. 28 TIMESTAMPS 29 loading 30 31 The Wayback Machine - 32 https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com 33 /blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ 34 35 [19]MENU 36 37 * [20]Latest posts 38 * [21]New? Start here! 39 * [22]About Robfitz 40 * [23]Book 41 * [24]Get new posts by RSS or email 42 43 [25]by @robfitz 44 45 [26]Mop 46 47 by [27]robfitz • October 20, 2011 • [28]Best of, [29]Founders • 48 [30]Comments (5) • 468 49 50 [31]The coffeeshop fallacy 51 52 Lots of people think they want to start a coffeeshop. They likely 53 don’t. That’s like buying a minimum wage job for two hundred grand. 54 What they want is to be a customer and sit in a cafe, drink coffee, be 55 nice to people, and possibly curate an art gallery. 56 57 We’re good at recognising when we receive pleasure from consuming a 58 certain good or service. But then we extrapolate incorrectly to the 59 conclusion that owning said business will deliver even more pleasure. 60 61 Max Levchin (paypal, slide) said something to the effect of: 62 63 You you can’t be in love with a particular idea or business. You 64 have to be in love with the idea of running a business. 65 66 It’s one of those quotes that has haunted me, in no small part because 67 Max has been so successful in such a wide range of pursuits and because 68 I both understand his reasoning and [somewhat] disagree with his 69 conclusion. I still think that matching your business model to your 70 values is a competitive advantage and that [32]doing otherwise is, for 71 most people, a shortcut to disasterville. 72 73 Here’s a working definition of the coffeeshop fallacy: 74 75 The coffeeshop fallacy is a mismatch between the work one imagines 76 to be involved in a pursuit and the actual day-to-day labour. 77 78 It is most common in industries with a strong survival bias which 79 create a fun or desirable product. 80 81 It preys on actors, artists, founders, and more 82 83 For example, the founders of a game company are more likely to fall 84 victim to the coffeeshop fallacy than the founders of a new CRM. The 85 former are liable to believe that since what they are building is fun, 86 the construction process will share that virtue. 87 88 Beautiful young people covet the observed lifestyle of successful 89 actors or models without recognising that their own career path will 90 mostly involve schlepping coffee and talking to jerks. The founders of 91 a film studio will spend most of their time managing a pipeline. The 92 founder of a cafe becomes a mopper and accountant. 93 94 A stoic solution 95 96 I think I can see where Max is coming from. I would unpack through his 97 train of thought like this: 98 99 Building a fun product still involves lots of painful and boring 100 work. 101 102 Enjoying the product is the luxury of the customer, not the 103 producer. 104 105 If I’m not going to enjoy building it either way, then choosing what 106 I build based on what I would enjoy consuming is a fool’s errand. 107 108 Therefore, I can chase the very best opportunity, whether it be 109 fraud detection or glitter widgets, since in either case I’m still 110 spending my time running a company. 111 112 His framing basically solves the coffeeshop fallacy. Instead of saying 113 “I want to start a cafe” you say “I want to spend my days mopping while 114 risking $200k on a low margin retail/service business with a 10% 115 success rate.” And then you go: “Hmmmmmm…” 116 117 Constraints and wiggle room 118 119 However, not everyone is quite so mercenary as Max. I don’t know him, 120 but based on what I’ve read and watched, I get the impression that he 121 follows the market, full stop. If he saw a big opening he could 122 exploit, he’d be there regardless of whether it was drilling for oil or 123 starting a babysitting empire. 124 125 Most founders have some additional constraints on the type of business 126 they want to run and it’s important to recognise that. Not because 127 you’re required to [33]follow your passions, but rather because it’s 128 helpful to avoid your workday nightmares. 129 130 Some founders care about the market or the customer or the value 131 proposition or the impact or the scale. 132 133 Caring about the product seems to be the most dangerous. It’s how the 134 coffeeshop fallacy pops up and it’s how people end up spending years 135 building stuff nobody wants to buy. 136 137 Caring about a certain customer group still gives you a lot of wiggle 138 room. Caring only about the market (like Max) provides infinite wiggle 139 room, but I don’t think many people can honestly claim that value set. 140 141 I’ve made this mistake 142 143 The first time, we ended up converting our creativity tools for kids 144 into a straight-up brand advertising play. Although building the former 145 was no more fun than building the latter (it’s code and metrics either 146 way), I valued enabling creativity for kids in a way that I did not 147 care about reinventing advertising. Advertising was the better market, 148 undoubtedly, but our team was less able and willing to deliver 149 something remarkable. 150 151 The situation arose again at Nvana when we were building tools to teach 152 entrepreneurship. We couldn’t scale the business by focusing only on 153 universities, and we had some decent leads in re-applying the product 154 to corporate use cases. Instead, we shut it down. 155 156 [Image] from [34]dielis 157 158 Related Posts 159 160 Previous post: 161 [35]Getting and giving good startup advice Next Post: 162 [36]Let’s admit that customer development is awkward 163 about the author: [37]robfitz 164 I'm a tech entrepreneur, author, and partner at [38]FounderCentric, 165 where we help accelerators and universities design and deliver better 166 startup education programs. I've successfully bankrupted 3 companies, 167 am a YCombinator alum, and have built products used globally by brands 168 like MTV & Sony. I've raised funding in the US and UK and recently 169 crowd funded a [39]card game. I wrote [40]The Mom Test book about the 170 practicalities of early stage customer development and sales. It's full 171 of jokes. I live in Barcelona mostly. 172 173 5 Responses to The coffeeshop fallacy 174 175 1. [41]Cafes: Why do most café startups fail? - Quora says: 176 [42]October 29, 2011 at 11:07 pm 177 [...] [...] 178 2. [43]Logical Fallacy of the Day: The Coffee Shop Fallacy | The 179 Thinker says: 180 [44]November 3, 2011 at 2:03 pm 181 [...] Rob Fitzpatrick at The Startup Toolkit blog: Lots of people 182 think they want to start a coffeeshop. They likely don’t. That’s 183 like [...] 184 3. [45]咖啡厅错觉（Coffeeshop Fallacy）：太爱它就一定要拥有它？ | 沉思小屋 says: 185 [46]November 28, 2011 at 5:35 am 186 [...] 最近读到一篇文章，说到一个有趣的人性现象，你是否曾经听过身边的朋友，或者自己，曾经有过一个念头—— [...] 187 4. [47]马克汀市场营销学一日一讲 » Blog Archive » 为什么很多人都想开咖啡店、书吧之类？好开么？赚钱么？ says: 188 [48]March 17, 2012 at 11:30 am 189 [...] coffeeshop fallacy》： 190 地址：http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy 191 /标签：市场营销准备：理解市场与消费者, 邪派NLP攻心营销, 零售 [...] 192 5. [49]How to date a supermodel (or get dealflow or find cofounders) 193 says: 194 [50]June 7, 2013 at 4:55 pm 195 [...] I’ve received a lot of value from transforming what appears 196 to be a herculean or even sisyphean[3] task (cold calling & 197 selling, going to bars to chat up strangers) into an easy pleasure 198 (playing poker with interesting people, working in a cafe). [...] 199 200 * [51]Mom Test Book Cover - A5 201 202 [52]Everyone is lying to you (the book) 203 * [53]Habit YC Pitch 204 205 [54]4 dumb and 1 good way I’ve structured my work/life balance 206 * [55]Screen Shot 2013-12-01 at 14.07.00 207 208 [56]How to do (and what to expect from) early stage customer development & 209 sales 210 * 211 212 [57]How to make failure sustainable (and career entrepreneurship possible) 213 * [58]This guy wants his windows fixed 214 215 [59]Abstraction makes us stupid at business 216 * [60]Remember when we used to learn stuff like that from the nature 217 channel? On the teevee? 218 219 [61]Blogging for your business is worth it even if you get no traffic 220 * [62]The problem is the problem. Work it. 221 222 [63]The problem isn’t you. The problem is the problem. 223 * [64]Aeir Talk Logo 224 225 [65]A man, a mop, a year, and an app – Joseph Hill on Aeir Talk 226 * [66]Brainstorm wall 227 228 [67]How I come up with new startup ideas (in 4 steps) 229 * [68]Cool kid 230 231 [69]Negotiate like you don’t need it (and other worthless advice) 232 * [70]King of War 233 234 [71]Choose wars based on strengths & battles based on weaknesses 235 * [72]Making decisions 236 237 [73]Making decisions 238 * [74]Money shrub 239 240 [75]You’re a startup. It’s okay to ask about money. 241 * [76]Dad 242 243 [77]My dad taught me cashflow with a soda machine 244 * [78]Anthony_Trollope_portrait 245 246 [79]Trollope on shipping 247 * [80]thank you generous 248 249 [81]It’s the CEO’s job to email the first 1000 signups 250 * [82]Mop 251 252 [83]The coffeeshop fallacy 253 * 254 255 [84]Getting and giving good startup advice 256 * [85]They're acting all sweet but really just want your peanuts. 257 258 [86]How to date a supermodel (or get dealflow or find cofounders) 259 * [87]mom pumpkins 260 261 [88]The mom test for good customer feedback 262 263 Latest posts 264 265 * [89]The 4 bits of social media that are mostly useful 266 * [90]The ferry driver, the founder, and the freelancer 267 * [91]Wealth narratives 268 * [92]A short guide (and resources) for introverted founders 269 * [93]Improv, skiing, writing, and starting before you’re ready 270 * [94]The gambler’s stack 271 * [95]Two years of remote working – hiring, scaling, culture, and the 272 lifestyle trade-off 273 * [96]How founders get paid: non-strategic acquisitions, dividends, 274 and private islands 275 * [97]I prefer Effectuation to Lean Startup (sorta) 276 * [98]Tool and resource list for new founders 277 278 Sign up for my dang rss 279 280 [mom-pumpkins.jpg] 281 [99][twitter100.png] 282 [100]Follow @robfitz 283 284 Or subscribe by email: 285 ____________________ Subscribe 286 287 Stop screwing up custdev; buy my book 288 289 [101][momtextbox-cropped.jpg] "Wow. This book created a paradigm shift 290 in my understanding of how to ask good questions." 291 "Could not put it down" 292 "Brilliant read, full of useful tips and insight. Go get yourself a 293 copy!" 294 295 Archive 296 297 [Select Month________] 298 299 References 300 301 Visible links: 302 1. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/feed/ 303 2. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/comments/feed/ 304 3. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/feed/ 305 4. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/getting-and-giving-good-startup-advice/ 306 5. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/lets-admit-that-customer-development-is-awkward/ 307 6. https://archive.org/includes/donate.php?as_page=1&platform=wb&referer=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ 308 7. file:///web/ 309 8. 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