diff --git a/static/archive/web-archive-org-quyhdp.txt b/static/archive/web-archive-org-quyhdp.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..589085c --- /dev/null +++ b/static/archive/web-archive-org-quyhdp.txt @@ -0,0 +1,415 @@ + #[1]by @robfitz » Feed [2]by @robfitz » Comments Feed [3]by @robfitz » + The coffeeshop fallacy Comments Feed [4]Getting and giving good startup + advice [5]Let’s admit that customer development is awkward + + IFRAME: + [6]https://archive.org/includes/donate.php?as_page=1&platform=wb&refere + r=https%3A//web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http%3A//thestartuptoolk + it.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ + + [7]Wayback Machine + http://thestartuptoo Go + [8]232 captures + 17 Nov 2011 - 12 Nov 2020 + [9]Feb MAR [10]May + [11]Previous capture 04 [12]Next capture + [13]2015 2016 [14]2017 + success + fail + [15]About this capture + COLLECTED BY + Organization: [16]Internet Archive + The Internet Archive discovers and captures web pages through many + different web crawls. At any given time several distinct crawls are + running, some for months, and some every day or longer. View the web + archive through the [17]Wayback Machine. + Collection: [18]Hackernews crawl number 0 + Hacker News Crawl of their links. + TIMESTAMPS + loading + + The Wayback Machine - + https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com + /blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ + + [19]MENU + + * [20]Latest posts + * [21]New? Start here! + * [22]About Robfitz + * [23]Book + * [24]Get new posts by RSS or email + +[25]by @robfitz + + [26]Mop + + by [27]robfitz • October 20, 2011 • [28]Best of, [29]Founders • + [30]Comments (5) • 468 + +[31]The coffeeshop fallacy + + Lots of people think they want to start a coffeeshop. They likely + don’t. That’s like buying a minimum wage job for two hundred grand. + What they want is to be a customer and sit in a cafe, drink coffee, be + nice to people, and possibly curate an art gallery. + + We’re good at recognising when we receive pleasure from consuming a + certain good or service. But then we extrapolate incorrectly to the + conclusion that owning said business will deliver even more pleasure. + + Max Levchin (paypal, slide) said something to the effect of: + + You you can’t be in love with a particular idea or business. You + have to be in love with the idea of running a business. + + It’s one of those quotes that has haunted me, in no small part because + Max has been so successful in such a wide range of pursuits and because + I both understand his reasoning and [somewhat] disagree with his + conclusion. I still think that matching your business model to your + values is a competitive advantage and that [32]doing otherwise is, for + most people, a shortcut to disasterville. + + Here’s a working definition of the coffeeshop fallacy: + + The coffeeshop fallacy is a mismatch between the work one imagines + to be involved in a pursuit and the actual day-to-day labour. + + It is most common in industries with a strong survival bias which + create a fun or desirable product. + +It preys on actors, artists, founders, and more + + For example, the founders of a game company are more likely to fall + victim to the coffeeshop fallacy than the founders of a new CRM. The + former are liable to believe that since what they are building is fun, + the construction process will share that virtue. + + Beautiful young people covet the observed lifestyle of successful + actors or models without recognising that their own career path will + mostly involve schlepping coffee and talking to jerks. The founders of + a film studio will spend most of their time managing a pipeline. The + founder of a cafe becomes a mopper and accountant. + +A stoic solution + + I think I can see where Max is coming from. I would unpack through his + train of thought like this: + + Building a fun product still involves lots of painful and boring + work. + + Enjoying the product is the luxury of the customer, not the + producer. + + If I’m not going to enjoy building it either way, then choosing what + I build based on what I would enjoy consuming is a fool’s errand. + + Therefore, I can chase the very best opportunity, whether it be + fraud detection or glitter widgets, since in either case I’m still + spending my time running a company. + + His framing basically solves the coffeeshop fallacy. Instead of saying + “I want to start a cafe” you say “I want to spend my days mopping while + risking $200k on a low margin retail/service business with a 10% + success rate.” And then you go: “Hmmmmmm…” + +Constraints and wiggle room + + However, not everyone is quite so mercenary as Max. I don’t know him, + but based on what I’ve read and watched, I get the impression that he + follows the market, full stop. If he saw a big opening he could + exploit, he’d be there regardless of whether it was drilling for oil or + starting a babysitting empire. + + Most founders have some additional constraints on the type of business + they want to run and it’s important to recognise that. Not because + you’re required to [33]follow your passions, but rather because it’s + helpful to avoid your workday nightmares. + + Some founders care about the market or the customer or the value + proposition or the impact or the scale. + + Caring about the product seems to be the most dangerous. It’s how the + coffeeshop fallacy pops up and it’s how people end up spending years + building stuff nobody wants to buy. + + Caring about a certain customer group still gives you a lot of wiggle + room. Caring only about the market (like Max) provides infinite wiggle + room, but I don’t think many people can honestly claim that value set. + +I’ve made this mistake + + The first time, we ended up converting our creativity tools for kids + into a straight-up brand advertising play. Although building the former + was no more fun than building the latter (it’s code and metrics either + way), I valued enabling creativity for kids in a way that I did not + care about reinventing advertising. Advertising was the better market, + undoubtedly, but our team was less able and willing to deliver + something remarkable. + + The situation arose again at Nvana when we were building tools to teach + entrepreneurship. We couldn’t scale the business by focusing only on + universities, and we had some decent leads in re-applying the product + to corporate use cases. Instead, we shut it down. + + [Image] from [34]dielis + +Related Posts + + Previous post: + [35]Getting and giving good startup advice Next Post: + [36]Let’s admit that customer development is awkward + about the author: [37]robfitz + I'm a tech entrepreneur, author, and partner at [38]FounderCentric, + where we help accelerators and universities design and deliver better + startup education programs. I've successfully bankrupted 3 companies, + am a YCombinator alum, and have built products used globally by brands + like MTV & Sony. I've raised funding in the US and UK and recently + crowd funded a [39]card game. I wrote [40]The Mom Test book about the + practicalities of early stage customer development and sales. It's full + of jokes. I live in Barcelona mostly. + +5 Responses to The coffeeshop fallacy + + 1. [41]Cafes: Why do most café startups fail? - Quora says: + [42]October 29, 2011 at 11:07 pm + [...] [...] + 2. [43]Logical Fallacy of the Day: The Coffee Shop Fallacy | The + Thinker says: + [44]November 3, 2011 at 2:03 pm + [...] Rob Fitzpatrick at The Startup Toolkit blog: Lots of people + think they want to start a coffeeshop. They likely don’t. That’s + like [...] + 3. [45]咖啡厅错觉（Coffeeshop Fallacy）：太爱它就一定要拥有它？ | 沉思小屋 says: + [46]November 28, 2011 at 5:35 am + [...] 最近读到一篇文章，说到一个有趣的人性现象，你是否曾经听过身边的朋友，或者自己，曾经有过一个念头—— [...] + 4. [47]马克汀市场营销学一日一讲 » Blog Archive » 为什么很多人都想开咖啡店、书吧之类？好开么？赚钱么？ says: + [48]March 17, 2012 at 11:30 am + [...] coffeeshop fallacy》： + 地址：http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy + /标签：市场营销准备：理解市场与消费者, 邪派NLP攻心营销, 零售 [...] + 5. [49]How to date a supermodel (or get dealflow or find cofounders) + says: + [50]June 7, 2013 at 4:55 pm + [...] I’ve received a lot of value from transforming what appears + to be a herculean or even sisyphean[3] task (cold calling & + selling, going to bars to chat up strangers) into an easy pleasure + (playing poker with interesting people, working in a cafe). [...] + + * [51]Mom Test Book Cover - A5 + +[52]Everyone is lying to you (the book) + * [53]Habit YC Pitch + +[54]4 dumb and 1 good way I’ve structured my work/life balance + * [55]Screen Shot 2013-12-01 at 14.07.00 + +[56]How to do (and what to expect from) early stage customer development & +sales + * + +[57]How to make failure sustainable (and career entrepreneurship possible) + * [58]This guy wants his windows fixed + +[59]Abstraction makes us stupid at business + * [60]Remember when we used to learn stuff like that from the nature + channel? On the teevee? + +[61]Blogging for your business is worth it even if you get no traffic + * [62]The problem is the problem. Work it. + +[63]The problem isn’t you. The problem is the problem. + * [64]Aeir Talk Logo + +[65]A man, a mop, a year, and an app – Joseph Hill on Aeir Talk + * [66]Brainstorm wall + +[67]How I come up with new startup ideas (in 4 steps) + * [68]Cool kid + +[69]Negotiate like you don’t need it (and other worthless advice) + * [70]King of War + +[71]Choose wars based on strengths & battles based on weaknesses + * [72]Making decisions + +[73]Making decisions + * [74]Money shrub + +[75]You’re a startup. It’s okay to ask about money. + * [76]Dad + +[77]My dad taught me cashflow with a soda machine + * [78]Anthony_Trollope_portrait + +[79]Trollope on shipping + * [80]thank you generous + +[81]It’s the CEO’s job to email the first 1000 signups + * [82]Mop + +[83]The coffeeshop fallacy + * + +[84]Getting and giving good startup advice + * [85]They're acting all sweet but really just want your peanuts. + +[86]How to date a supermodel (or get dealflow or find cofounders) + * [87]mom pumpkins + +[88]The mom test for good customer feedback + +Latest posts + + * [89]The 4 bits of social media that are mostly useful + * [90]The ferry driver, the founder, and the freelancer + * [91]Wealth narratives + * [92]A short guide (and resources) for introverted founders + * [93]Improv, skiing, writing, and starting before you’re ready + * [94]The gambler’s stack + * [95]Two years of remote working – hiring, scaling, culture, and the + lifestyle trade-off + * [96]How founders get paid: non-strategic acquisitions, dividends, + and private islands + * [97]I prefer Effectuation to Lean Startup (sorta) + * [98]Tool and resource list for new founders + +Sign up for my dang rss + + [mom-pumpkins.jpg] + [99][twitter100.png] + [100]Follow @robfitz + + Or subscribe by email: + ____________________ Subscribe + +Stop screwing up custdev; buy my book + + [101][momtextbox-cropped.jpg] "Wow. This book created a paradigm shift + in my understanding of how to ask good questions." + "Could not put it down" + "Brilliant read, full of useful tips and insight. Go get yourself a + copy!" + +Archive + + [Select Month________] + +References + + Visible links: + 1. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/feed/ + 2. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/comments/feed/ + 3. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/feed/ + 4. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/getting-and-giving-good-startup-advice/ + 5. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/lets-admit-that-customer-development-is-awkward/ + 6. https://archive.org/includes/donate.php?as_page=1&platform=wb&referer=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ + 7. file:///web/ + 8. file:///web/20160304085903*/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/ + 9. 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