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416 lines
24 KiB
Plaintext
#[1]by @robfitz » Feed [2]by @robfitz » Comments Feed [3]by @robfitz »
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The coffeeshop fallacy Comments Feed [4]Getting and giving good startup
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advice [5]Let’s admit that customer development is awkward
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IFRAME:
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[6]https://archive.org/includes/donate.php?as_page=1&platform=wb&refere
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r=https%3A//web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http%3A//thestartuptoolk
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it.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/
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[7]Wayback Machine
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http://thestartuptoo Go
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[8]232 captures
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17 Nov 2011 - 12 Nov 2020
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[9]Feb MAR [10]May
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[11]Previous capture 04 [12]Next capture
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[13]2015 2016 [14]2017
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success
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[15]About this capture
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COLLECTED BY
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Organization: [16]Internet Archive
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TIMESTAMPS
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loading
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The Wayback Machine -
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https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com
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/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/
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[19]MENU
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* [20]Latest posts
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* [21]New? Start here!
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* [22]About Robfitz
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* [23]Book
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* [24]Get new posts by RSS or email
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[25]by @robfitz
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[26]Mop
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by [27]robfitz • October 20, 2011 • [28]Best of, [29]Founders •
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[30]Comments (5) • 468
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[31]The coffeeshop fallacy
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Lots of people think they want to start a coffeeshop. They likely
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don’t. That’s like buying a minimum wage job for two hundred grand.
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What they want is to be a customer and sit in a cafe, drink coffee, be
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nice to people, and possibly curate an art gallery.
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We’re good at recognising when we receive pleasure from consuming a
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certain good or service. But then we extrapolate incorrectly to the
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conclusion that owning said business will deliver even more pleasure.
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Max Levchin (paypal, slide) said something to the effect of:
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You you can’t be in love with a particular idea or business. You
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have to be in love with the idea of running a business.
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It’s one of those quotes that has haunted me, in no small part because
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Max has been so successful in such a wide range of pursuits and because
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I both understand his reasoning and [somewhat] disagree with his
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conclusion. I still think that matching your business model to your
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values is a competitive advantage and that [32]doing otherwise is, for
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most people, a shortcut to disasterville.
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Here’s a working definition of the coffeeshop fallacy:
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The coffeeshop fallacy is a mismatch between the work one imagines
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to be involved in a pursuit and the actual day-to-day labour.
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It is most common in industries with a strong survival bias which
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create a fun or desirable product.
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It preys on actors, artists, founders, and more
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For example, the founders of a game company are more likely to fall
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victim to the coffeeshop fallacy than the founders of a new CRM. The
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former are liable to believe that since what they are building is fun,
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the construction process will share that virtue.
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Beautiful young people covet the observed lifestyle of successful
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actors or models without recognising that their own career path will
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mostly involve schlepping coffee and talking to jerks. The founders of
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a film studio will spend most of their time managing a pipeline. The
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founder of a cafe becomes a mopper and accountant.
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A stoic solution
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I think I can see where Max is coming from. I would unpack through his
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train of thought like this:
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Building a fun product still involves lots of painful and boring
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work.
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Enjoying the product is the luxury of the customer, not the
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producer.
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If I’m not going to enjoy building it either way, then choosing what
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I build based on what I would enjoy consuming is a fool’s errand.
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Therefore, I can chase the very best opportunity, whether it be
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fraud detection or glitter widgets, since in either case I’m still
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spending my time running a company.
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His framing basically solves the coffeeshop fallacy. Instead of saying
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“I want to start a cafe” you say “I want to spend my days mopping while
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risking $200k on a low margin retail/service business with a 10%
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success rate.” And then you go: “Hmmmmmm…”
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Constraints and wiggle room
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However, not everyone is quite so mercenary as Max. I don’t know him,
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but based on what I’ve read and watched, I get the impression that he
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follows the market, full stop. If he saw a big opening he could
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exploit, he’d be there regardless of whether it was drilling for oil or
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starting a babysitting empire.
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Most founders have some additional constraints on the type of business
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they want to run and it’s important to recognise that. Not because
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you’re required to [33]follow your passions, but rather because it’s
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helpful to avoid your workday nightmares.
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Some founders care about the market or the customer or the value
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proposition or the impact or the scale.
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Caring about the product seems to be the most dangerous. It’s how the
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coffeeshop fallacy pops up and it’s how people end up spending years
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building stuff nobody wants to buy.
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Caring about a certain customer group still gives you a lot of wiggle
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room. Caring only about the market (like Max) provides infinite wiggle
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room, but I don’t think many people can honestly claim that value set.
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I’ve made this mistake
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The first time, we ended up converting our creativity tools for kids
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into a straight-up brand advertising play. Although building the former
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was no more fun than building the latter (it’s code and metrics either
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way), I valued enabling creativity for kids in a way that I did not
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care about reinventing advertising. Advertising was the better market,
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undoubtedly, but our team was less able and willing to deliver
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something remarkable.
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The situation arose again at Nvana when we were building tools to teach
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entrepreneurship. We couldn’t scale the business by focusing only on
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universities, and we had some decent leads in re-applying the product
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to corporate use cases. Instead, we shut it down.
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[Image] from [34]dielis
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Related Posts
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Previous post:
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[35]Getting and giving good startup advice Next Post:
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[36]Let’s admit that customer development is awkward
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about the author: [37]robfitz
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I'm a tech entrepreneur, author, and partner at [38]FounderCentric,
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where we help accelerators and universities design and deliver better
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startup education programs. I've successfully bankrupted 3 companies,
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am a YCombinator alum, and have built products used globally by brands
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like MTV & Sony. I've raised funding in the US and UK and recently
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crowd funded a [39]card game. I wrote [40]The Mom Test book about the
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practicalities of early stage customer development and sales. It's full
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of jokes. I live in Barcelona mostly.
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5 Responses to The coffeeshop fallacy
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1. [41]Cafes: Why do most café startups fail? - Quora says:
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[42]October 29, 2011 at 11:07 pm
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[...] [...]
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2. [43]Logical Fallacy of the Day: The Coffee Shop Fallacy | The
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Thinker says:
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[44]November 3, 2011 at 2:03 pm
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[...] Rob Fitzpatrick at The Startup Toolkit blog: Lots of people
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think they want to start a coffeeshop. They likely don’t. That’s
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like [...]
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3. [45]咖啡厅错觉（Coffeeshop Fallacy）：太爱它就一定要拥有它？ | 沉思小屋 says:
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[46]November 28, 2011 at 5:35 am
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[...] 最近读到一篇文章，说到一个有趣的人性现象，你是否曾经听过身边的朋友，或者自己，曾经有过一个念头—— [...]
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4. [47]马克汀市场营销学一日一讲 » Blog Archive » 为什么很多人都想开咖啡店、书吧之类？好开么？赚钱么？ says:
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[48]March 17, 2012 at 11:30 am
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[...] coffeeshop fallacy》：
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地址：http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy
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/标签：市场营销准备：理解市场与消费者, 邪派NLP攻心营销, 零售 [...]
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5. [49]How to date a supermodel (or get dealflow or find cofounders)
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says:
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[50]June 7, 2013 at 4:55 pm
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[...] I’ve received a lot of value from transforming what appears
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to be a herculean or even sisyphean[3] task (cold calling &
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selling, going to bars to chat up strangers) into an easy pleasure
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(playing poker with interesting people, working in a cafe). [...]
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* [51]Mom Test Book Cover - A5
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[52]Everyone is lying to you (the book)
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* [53]Habit YC Pitch
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[54]4 dumb and 1 good way I’ve structured my work/life balance
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* [55]Screen Shot 2013-12-01 at 14.07.00
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[56]How to do (and what to expect from) early stage customer development &
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sales
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*
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[57]How to make failure sustainable (and career entrepreneurship possible)
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* [58]This guy wants his windows fixed
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[59]Abstraction makes us stupid at business
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* [60]Remember when we used to learn stuff like that from the nature
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channel? On the teevee?
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[61]Blogging for your business is worth it even if you get no traffic
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* [62]The problem is the problem. Work it.
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[63]The problem isn’t you. The problem is the problem.
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* [64]Aeir Talk Logo
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[65]A man, a mop, a year, and an app – Joseph Hill on Aeir Talk
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* [66]Brainstorm wall
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[67]How I come up with new startup ideas (in 4 steps)
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* [68]Cool kid
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[69]Negotiate like you don’t need it (and other worthless advice)
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* [70]King of War
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[71]Choose wars based on strengths & battles based on weaknesses
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* [72]Making decisions
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[73]Making decisions
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* [74]Money shrub
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[75]You’re a startup. It’s okay to ask about money.
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* [76]Dad
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[77]My dad taught me cashflow with a soda machine
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* [78]Anthony_Trollope_portrait
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[79]Trollope on shipping
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* [80]thank you generous
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[81]It’s the CEO’s job to email the first 1000 signups
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* [82]Mop
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[83]The coffeeshop fallacy
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*
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[84]Getting and giving good startup advice
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* [85]They're acting all sweet but really just want your peanuts.
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[86]How to date a supermodel (or get dealflow or find cofounders)
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* [87]mom pumpkins
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[88]The mom test for good customer feedback
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Latest posts
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* [89]The 4 bits of social media that are mostly useful
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* [90]The ferry driver, the founder, and the freelancer
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* [91]Wealth narratives
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* [92]A short guide (and resources) for introverted founders
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* [93]Improv, skiing, writing, and starting before you’re ready
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* [94]The gambler’s stack
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* [95]Two years of remote working – hiring, scaling, culture, and the
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lifestyle trade-off
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* [96]How founders get paid: non-strategic acquisitions, dividends,
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and private islands
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* [97]I prefer Effectuation to Lean Startup (sorta)
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* [98]Tool and resource list for new founders
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Sign up for my dang rss
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[mom-pumpkins.jpg]
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[99][twitter100.png]
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[100]Follow @robfitz
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Or subscribe by email:
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____________________ Subscribe
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Stop screwing up custdev; buy my book
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[101][momtextbox-cropped.jpg] "Wow. This book created a paradigm shift
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in my understanding of how to ask good questions."
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"Could not put it down"
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"Brilliant read, full of useful tips and insight. Go get yourself a
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copy!"
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Archive
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References
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1. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/feed/
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17. http://archive.org/web/web.php
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18. https://archive.org/details/hackernews00000
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20. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/
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23. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://momtestbook.com/?ref=stk
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28. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/category/featured/
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29. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/category/founders/
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30. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/#comments
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59. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/abstraction-makes-us-stupid-at-business/
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60. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/blogging-for-your-business-is-worth-it-even-if-you-get-no-traffic/
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61. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/blogging-for-your-business-is-worth-it-even-if-you-get-no-traffic/
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62. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/the-problem-isnt-you-the-problem-is-the-problem/
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63. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/the-problem-isnt-you-the-problem-is-the-problem/
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64. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/a-man-a-mop-a-year-and-an-app-joseph-hill-on-aeir-talk/
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65. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/a-man-a-mop-a-year-and-an-app-joseph-hill-on-aeir-talk/
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66. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/how-i-come-up-with-new-startup-ideas-in-4-steps/
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67. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/12/how-i-come-up-with-new-startup-ideas-in-4-steps/
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68. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/negotiate-like-you-dont-need-it-and-other-worthless-advice/
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69. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/negotiate-like-you-dont-need-it-and-other-worthless-advice/
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70. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/choose-wars-based-on-strengths-battles-based-on-weaknesses/
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71. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/choose-wars-based-on-strengths-battles-based-on-weaknesses/
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72. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/making-decisions/
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73. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/making-decisions/
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74. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/youre-a-startup-its-okay-to-ask-about-money/
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75. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/11/youre-a-startup-its-okay-to-ask-about-money/
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76. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/my-dad-taught-me-cashflow-with-a-soda-machine/
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77. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/my-dad-taught-me-cashflow-with-a-soda-machine/
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78. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/trollope-on-shipping/
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79. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/trollope-on-shipping/
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80. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/its-the-ceos-job-to-email-the-first-1000-signups/
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81. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/its-the-ceos-job-to-email-the-first-1000-signups/
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82. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/
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83. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/
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84. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/getting-and-giving-good-startup-advice/
|
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85. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/how-to-date-a-supermodel-or-get-dealflow-or-find-cofounders/
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86. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/how-to-date-a-supermodel-or-get-dealflow-or-find-cofounders/
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87. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the-mom-test-for-good-customer-feedback/
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88. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the-mom-test-for-good-customer-feedback/
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89. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2015/05/the-4-bits-of-social-media-that-are-mostly-useful/
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90. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2015/02/the-ferry-driver/
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91. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2015/02/wealth-narratives/
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92. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2015/02/a-short-guide-and-resources-for-introverted-founders/
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||
93. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2015/01/improv-skiing-writing-and-starting-before-youre-ready/
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||
94. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2015/01/the-gamblers-stack/
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95. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2014/12/two-years-of-remote-working-hiring-scaling-culture-and-the-lifestyle-trade-off/
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||
96. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2014/09/how-founders-get-paid-non-strategic-acquisitions-dividends-and-private-islands/
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97. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2014/09/i-prefer-effectuation-to-lean-startup-sorta/
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98. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2014/09/tool-and-resources-list-for-new-founders/
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99. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://twitter.com/robfitz/
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100. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/https://twitter.com/robfitz
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101. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://momtestbook.com/?ref=stk
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Hidden links:
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103. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html
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104. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html
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105. https://archive.org/account/login.php
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106. http://faq.web.archive.org/
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107. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html#close
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108. file://localhost/web/20160304085903/http://web.archive.org/screenshot/http://thestartuptoolkit.com/blog/2011/10/the_coffeeshop_fallacy/
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109. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html
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110. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html
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111. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html
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112. https://web.archive.org/web/20160304085903/http://feeds.feedburner.com/TheStartupToolkit
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113. file://localhost/var/folders/q9/qlz2w5251kzdfgn0np7z2s4c0000gn/T/L5444-824TMP.html
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